For three decades, oil was the engine of Kazakhstan's post-Soviet prosperity, lifting it to middle-income status and turning it into a darling of frontier market investors. Today, that same oil is the source of a profound national crisis, as the dependencies created during the boom years have transformed into crippling liabilities. The country's economic model was built on a series of calculated risks that have now all come due at once. The most critical was an infrastructure dependency: 80...

Executive Summary For decades, a set of archetypal national growth models (from Germany’s export-led manufacturing to the commodity-driven expansion of nations like Brazil and Saudi Arabia) provided a conventional playbook for economic development. However, a confluence of structural shifts in the global economy, including geopolitical realignment, supply chain reconfiguration, and an accelerated energy transition, is placing these once-reliable models under unprecedented strain. This policy...

Executive Summary Emerging market governments are in a global race to build the next Silicon Valley, often launching ambitious, top-down initiatives that consume vast resources with little to show for it. This policy brief argues for a fundamental shift in approach. Instead of chasing grand, headline-grabbing projects, policymakers should focus on systematically removing the foundational barriers that entrepreneurs face daily. This toolkit provides a practical, action-oriented framework for...