Emerging Insights

Tracking Renminbi Internationalization Amid Global Economic Realignment Executive Summary The third quarter of 2025 has been a period of significant and complex developments in the internationalization of the Chinese renminbi (RMB). While the yuan has shown resilience and made notable inroads in specific areas, its path to becoming a major global currency remains uneven. This report analyzes the key trends and events from Q3 2025, providing a data-driven assessment of the RMB

Tracking Renminbi Internationalization Amid Global Economic Realignment Executive Summary The second quarter of 2025 presented a more challenging environment for the internationalization of the Chinese renminbi (RMB). After a period of steady gains, the yuan experienced a notable setback in its share of global payments, highlighting the currency's ongoing vulnerability to global economic shifts and competitive pressures. Despite this, underlying trends, such as the growing fo

For two decades, China's investment-led growth model was the primary driver of a global commodity super-cycle. Its ongoing structural slowdown, precipitated by a deep crisis in its property sector, marks a definitive end to this era. This analysis examines the extent to which India's rising demand for industrial and energy commodities can offset the deceleration in Chinese consumption through 2030. Our findings reveal a significant divergence in demand patterns: while India's

Tracking Renminbi Internationalization Amid Global Trade Realignment Executive Summary The first quarter of 2025 was defined by a major leap forward in the development of China's alternative financial infrastructure, marking one of the most significant periods for the renminbi's (RMB) internationalization in recent years. The official launch of a dedicated cross-border settlement system for the digital yuan (e-CNY) represented a landmark achievement, creating a new, technolog

Outsourced currency printing creates economic security vulnerabilities in emerging economies   Executive Summary State-owned or affiliated currency printing operations by aggressive states increasingly represent a previously underappreciated vector for economic statecraft. Chinese and Russian state printers are leveraging currency contracts to collect financial intelligence, enable sanctions evasion, and create economic leverage at the expense of economic sovereignty.   Chine

Executive Summary Across the Middle East, a critical and often misunderstood phenomenon is reshaping economies and consolidating authoritarian power: the deep economic integration of national militaries. This paper provides a comparative analysis of the military-economic complexes in Egypt, Pakistan, Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, revealing a spectrum of models from the deeply entrenched, autonomous "praetorian landlords" to state-directed industrial projects. In Egypt, Paki

Rising yuan adoption during sanctions surges and US dollar strength reflects a hunt for economic survival rather than geopolitical realignment   Introduction Beijing’s push to internationalize the renminbi (RMB) is often viewed through a geopolitical lens within China’s broader effort to redefine and recreate international architecture for its benefit. This is especially true in western financial press, which has fanned worries that the Chinese currency could challenge US dol

As the war in Ukraine persists, western multinational companies operating in Russia find themselves in an increasingly intricate and expensive business landscape. Despite promises to minimize their Russian exposure following the country's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many companies remain entangled in a web of sanctions, countermeasures, and legal battles. This analysis explores the challenges faced by these multinationals and the consequences of their continued presence i

The global economy is exhibiting increasing signs of divergence, with the United States charting a course of robust growth while other major economies like the United Kingdom and Japan face economic contractions and heightened uncertainties. This pattern of divergence, underscored by the latest economic performance data, is set to continue, driven by structural changes in demographics, savings rates, and government spending. In the closing months of last year, both the U.K. a

Natural gas markets are shifting from short-term spot market trading toward long-term contracts as developing economies seek to lock in supply and avoid macroeconomic instability. Major LNG importers like India and Brazil now aim to supplement spot purchases with 10-20 year offtake deals. Though spot prices are retreating from 2022's record highs, importers were burned by recent shortages and are willing to pay for insulation from volatility. The change comes after Pakistan'

China's economy shows increasing signs of deflationary pressure as consumer prices sink at the fastest pace in 15 years . January's 0.8% year-over-year CPI drop underscores a confluence of negative forces - excess housing, squeezed private firms, and wavering confidence. With GDP growth diverging downwards from official targets, Beijing faces a policy reckoning. Two issues stand out as suppressing demand and productivity. First, state support continues to flow disproportionat

Economics and defense policy is an odd intersection. Pure-play economics people tend to underplay defense’s importance as it's been built deep into peace-time assumptions or ignored as a political economy concern. Meanwhile, the defense ecosystem tends to treat the US’s use of economic tools as “law-based sanctions” while it's the squishy “geoeconomics” when other countries do it.  The international policy set in cities like DC and Brussels is slowly warming up to the defense

Welcome to the first edition of Global Economics Brief, CEE’s weekly guide to the markets, policies, and politics moving the...

Russia’s Remarkable Recovery The IMF year’s world economic outlook forecasted the Russian economy grew 2.6% in 2024 , double expectations and faster than all G7 economies for the second year in a row. The figures show how the Western-led sanctions regime has successfully severed the link between Russia and the West but failed to substantially degrade the economy or change Moscow’s behavior in the wake of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Such unexpected growth comes despite capit

Well-meaning EU regulations, from privacy to competition policy, have tended to accidentally favour big American tech firms over scrappy local challengers. Europe's digital protections throttled the online businesses that make the new economy since digital copyright rules landed a blow to home-grown tech stars Spotify. Brussels' new artificial intelligence (AI) act seems destined to further relegate European companies to the role of an “also ran” in the global technology rac

As developing country government demands for development and environmental responsibility overlap, commodity export restrictions are seeing a resurgence. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reports a five-fold surge in global export restrictions on raw materials, over the last decade. This trend poses a formidable challenge to governments striving to reduce carbon emissions, impacting approximately 10% of the global value of critical raw material

Investors are celebrating the unexpected victory of radical libertarian Javier Milei in Argentina's presidential election, as both stocks...

Brussels approved an advance payment of €5.1 billion to Poland as part of long-delayed EU pandemic recovery funds. The move comes ahead...

Russia's robust oil trade, a significant source of revenue since Western sanctions, faces a critical juncture due to challenges...

Serbia this week became the eighth European country to sign gas supply agreements with Azerbaijan. The two nations solidified nascent...

Javier Milei's recent electoral triumph in Argentina marks a significant shift in a trend sweeping across Latin America. Fueled by...