Research Program

Sovereign Finance

Debt structures, capital market access, risk pricing, and the financial architecture of emerging economies. CEE tracks debt sustainability, restructuring dynamics, and the evolving creditor landscape in frontier markets.

Program Focus

Debt, Capital Markets, and Risk in Frontier Economies

The sovereign debt landscape in emerging and frontier markets has been transformed over the past decade. The rise of Chinese bilateral lending, the proliferation of Eurobond issuance in frontier markets, and the increasing complexity of debt restructuring negotiations have created a new analytical environment that standard sovereign debt frameworks were not designed to navigate.

CEE's Sovereign Finance program tracks these dynamics with the granularity they require. We monitor debt restructuring cases, analyze IMF program design, and study the creditor composition shifts that are reshaping the political economy of sovereign debt.

Our work provides the analytical foundation for sovereign advisory engagements — helping governments understand their financing options, negotiate with creditors, and design debt management strategies that preserve fiscal space for development investment.

Research Themes

Debt Sustainability Analysis

Developing frontier-market-appropriate frameworks for assessing debt sustainability — moving beyond IMF DSA templates to capture the full complexity of frontier debt structures.

Restructuring Dynamics

Tracking the evolution of sovereign debt restructuring — from Paris Club to Common Framework — and analyzing the negotiating dynamics between debtors and creditors.

IMF Program Design

Studying the design, implementation, and outcomes of IMF programs in frontier markets, with attention to conditionality, ownership, and political economy.

Capital Market Access

Analyzing the conditions under which frontier markets can access international capital markets, and the pricing of sovereign risk in thin and illiquid markets.

Creditor Composition & Architecture

Tracking the shift from traditional Paris Club creditors to a more complex landscape including Chinese bilateral lenders, private bondholders, and multilateral institutions.

Program Data Products

EM Sovereign Debt Monitor

Beta

Tracking debt restructuring progress, IMF program compliance, and sovereign credit conditions across emerging market borrowers.

Frontier FDI Flows Tracker

Coming Soon

Monitoring foreign direct investment flows into frontier markets by sector, source country, and investment type.

Program Publications

All Publications

opinion

Opinion: How Oil Went from Kazakhstan's Greatest Asset to Biggest Liability

working paper

Sovereign Growth Models at a Crossroads: Navigating a New Global Economic Landscape

policy brief

A Pragmatic Policy Toolkit for Startup Ecosystems in Emerging Markets

tracker update

Yuan Adoption Tracker Update: Q3 2025