Emerging Insights

For two decades, China's investment-led growth model was the primary driver of a global commodity super-cycle. Its ongoing structural slowdown, precipitated by a deep crisis in its property sector, marks a definitive end to this era. This analysis examines the extent to which India's rising demand for industrial and energy commodities can offset the deceleration in Chinese consumption through 2030. Our findings reveal a significant divergence in demand patterns: while India's

Executive Summary Across the Middle East, a critical and often misunderstood phenomenon is reshaping economies and consolidating authoritarian power: the deep economic integration of national militaries. This paper provides a comparative analysis of the military-economic complexes in Egypt, Pakistan, Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, revealing a spectrum of models from the deeply entrenched, autonomous "praetorian landlords" to state-directed industrial projects. In Egypt, Paki

As developing country government demands for development and environmental responsibility overlap, commodity export restrictions are seeing a resurgence. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reports a five-fold surge in global export restrictions on raw materials, over the last decade. This trend poses a formidable challenge to governments striving to reduce carbon emissions, impacting approximately 10% of the global value of critical raw material