Emerging Insights

Tracking Renminbi Internationalization Amid Global Economic Realignment Executive Summary The third quarter of 2025 has been a period of significant and complex developments in the internationalization of the Chinese renminbi (RMB). While the yuan has shown resilience and made notable inroads in specific areas, its path to becoming a major global currency remains uneven. This report analyzes the key trends and events from Q3 2025, providing a data-driven assessment of the RMB

Tracking Renminbi Internationalization Amid Global Economic Realignment Executive Summary The second quarter of 2025 presented a more challenging environment for the internationalization of the Chinese renminbi (RMB). After a period of steady gains, the yuan experienced a notable setback in its share of global payments, highlighting the currency's ongoing vulnerability to global economic shifts and competitive pressures. Despite this, underlying trends, such as the growing fo

Executive Summary Beijing’s campaign to internationalize the renminbi (RMB) is often interpreted through a geopolitical lens as a direct challenge to the supremacy of the U.S. dollar. However, new analysis reveals a more pragmatic driver behind the yuan’s growing global role: economic survival. Data from the Center for Emerging Economies’ Yuan Adoption Tracker shows that emerging markets are not ditching the dollar in alignment with a Chinese political project, but rather as

Tracking Renminbi Internationalization Amid Global Trade Realignment Executive Summary The first quarter of 2025 was defined by a major leap forward in the development of China's alternative financial infrastructure, marking one of the most significant periods for the renminbi's (RMB) internationalization in recent years. The official launch of a dedicated cross-border settlement system for the digital yuan (e-CNY) represented a landmark achievement, creating a new, technolog

Outsourced currency printing creates economic security vulnerabilities in emerging economies   Executive Summary State-owned or affiliated currency printing operations by aggressive states increasingly represent a previously underappreciated vector for economic statecraft. Chinese and Russian state printers are leveraging currency contracts to collect financial intelligence, enable sanctions evasion, and create economic leverage at the expense of economic sovereignty.   Chine

Executive Summary Washington's strategic community has spent the past several years debating whether an "Asian NATO" is emerging in the Indo-Pacific. The question itself may be misleading. What is taking shape across the region bears less resemblance to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization than to an earlier, and ultimately more consequential, experiment in strategic cooperation: the European Economic Community and its predecessor, the European Coal and Steel Community. The

Executive Summary Across the Middle East, a critical and often misunderstood phenomenon is reshaping economies and consolidating authoritarian power: the deep economic integration of national militaries. This paper provides a comparative analysis of the military-economic complexes in Egypt, Pakistan, Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, revealing a spectrum of models from the deeply entrenched, autonomous "praetorian landlords" to state-directed industrial projects. In Egypt, Paki

As the war in Ukraine persists, western multinational companies operating in Russia find themselves in an increasingly intricate and expensive business landscape. Despite promises to minimize their Russian exposure following the country's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many companies remain entangled in a web of sanctions, countermeasures, and legal battles. This analysis explores the challenges faced by these multinationals and the consequences of their continued presence i

Economics and defense policy is an odd intersection. Pure-play economics people tend to underplay defense’s importance as it's been built deep into peace-time assumptions or ignored as a political economy concern. Meanwhile, the defense ecosystem tends to treat the US’s use of economic tools as “law-based sanctions” while it's the squishy “geoeconomics” when other countries do it.  The international policy set in cities like DC and Brussels is slowly warming up to the defense