Emerging Insights

Rising yuan adoption during sanctions surges and US dollar strength reflects a hunt for economic survival rather than geopolitical realignment   Introduction Beijing’s push to internationalize the renminbi (RMB) is often viewed through a geopolitical lens within China’s broader effort to redefine and recreate international architecture for its benefit. This is especially true in western financial press, which has fanned worries that the Chinese currency could challenge US dol

The global economy is exhibiting increasing signs of divergence, with the United States charting a course of robust growth while other major economies like the United Kingdom and Japan face economic contractions and heightened uncertainties. This pattern of divergence, underscored by the latest economic performance data, is set to continue, driven by structural changes in demographics, savings rates, and government spending. In the closing months of last year, both the U.K. a

Natural gas markets are shifting from short-term spot market trading toward long-term contracts as developing economies seek to lock in supply and avoid macroeconomic instability. Major LNG importers like India and Brazil now aim to supplement spot purchases with 10-20 year offtake deals. Though spot prices are retreating from 2022's record highs, importers were burned by recent shortages and are willing to pay for insulation from volatility. The change comes after Pakistan'

China's economy shows increasing signs of deflationary pressure as consumer prices sink at the fastest pace in 15 years . January's 0.8% year-over-year CPI drop underscores a confluence of negative forces - excess housing, squeezed private firms, and wavering confidence. With GDP growth diverging downwards from official targets, Beijing faces a policy reckoning. Two issues stand out as suppressing demand and productivity. First, state support continues to flow disproportionat

Russia’s Remarkable Recovery The IMF year’s world economic outlook forecasted the Russian economy grew 2.6% in 2024 , double expectations and faster than all G7 economies for the second year in a row. The figures show how the Western-led sanctions regime has successfully severed the link between Russia and the West but failed to substantially degrade the economy or change Moscow’s behavior in the wake of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Such unexpected growth comes despite capit

Since the emergence of international capital markets in the latter half of the 20th century, both FDI and portfolio flows as a percentage of global GDP have primarily been concentrated in the developed world. However, the last decade’s experiment with negative interest rates has seen 11 trillion of the most stable government bonds issue negative yields. This fall in interest rates caused international investors to increasingly look to riskier, but higher-yielding, fixed incom